Falsifiability Empirical
A theory worth taking seriously says, before the data arrive, exactly what would kill it. Here is that list. The right-hand column is the point: each kill-condition is pre-committed, not fitted after the fact.
Measurements retrieved 2026-07-02. Static table, refreshed by hand at each data release.
| Quantity | Lumen value | Current measurement | Next release (expected) | What a change would mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ω_Λ (dark-energy density) | Λ₀ = 1−π²/32 = 0.6916 | ≈0.689 (Planck ΛCDM) | Euclid DR1 (Oct 2026) | a sub-0.5% value outside [0.685, 0.695] refutes the cokernel-void identity — the corpus's best current hit |
| Leptonic δ_CP | π (180°), CP-conserving | 177° / 212° (NuFIT 6.0, normal ordering, without / with SK-atm); CP conservation allowed within ~1σ | DUNE / Hyper-K (~2028–30) | a confirmed near-maximal CP violation (~270°) refutes family CP = id |
| m_ν₃ (heaviest neutrino) | 48.7 meV (conditional seesaw) | √Δm²₃₁ = 50.1±0.2 meV (NuFIT 6.0, NO, m₁≈0) | JUNO |Δm²₃₁| (~2027), Hyper-K | 48.7 now sits below the global fit's 3σ range [49.5, 50.8] — a standing tension, recorded as such; the pre-committed kill remains a sub-0.5% direct JUNO/Hyper-K measurement of |Δm²₃₁| (assumes normal ordering; JUNO has been taking data since Aug 2025) |
| a₀ (MOND scale) | α (≈0.976× empirical) | 1.2±0.26×10⁻¹⁰ m/s² (SPARC) | better MOND / SPARC fits | sharpening a₀ to ±5% turns H₀ into a clean pass/fail (H₀ ∝ √a₀) |
| H₀ | 2α²/T_breath = 75.8 ±~11% (anchor-limited) | 73.2 / 68.5 / 67.4 (SH0ES / DESI / Planck) | sharper a₀ + distance ladder | only becomes a sharp test once a₀ is pinned (the prediction inherits the anchor's uncertainty) |
| Dark-energy evolution (w₀,w_a) | constant Λ₀ | DESI DR2 prefers evolving DE, 2.8–4.2σ | DESI DR3+ | a confirmed strongly-evolving w(z) challenges the constant Λ₀ |
| α⁻¹ | 137.036304 (4π³+π²+π) | 137.035999 (CODATA) | — (already at precision) | the seed identity, fixed; the 2×10⁻⁶ offset is the standing seed gap |
The dark-energy density Λ₀ is the strongest current hit; H₀ and the dark-energy evolution shape are the live tensions; δ_CP is the open forward bet for DUNE and Hyper-K; the neutrino mass has moved into tension — NuFIT 6.0 puts √Δm²₃₁ above the 48.7 meV window at >3σ on the global fit — with JUNO's direct |Δm²₃₁| measurement the pre-committed decider. Full scorecard and provenance in Edition 1 (addenda 388, 393, 400).
